Labor has pulled further ahead of the Coalition as the election campaign continues, opening up a larger lead in the latest Essential poll after two weeks of policy confusion and backdowns from Peter Dutton’s Liberals.
Dutton’s approval rating has also dipped, while more voters rate Anthony Albanese as the better leader on addressing cost of living, providing stable leadership, emissions reduction and keeping Australians safe.
The latest Guardian Essential poll shows Labor extending its lead against the Coalition. The “two-party-plus” measure, which allows voters to remain uncommitted, put Labor ahead 50% to 45%, with the balance undecided.
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If the undecided voters broke according to expected preference flows, 53% of votes would probably go to Labor and 47% for the Coalition.
It continued a steady uptick in support for Labor, after the last three polls put the race at 48% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition in early April, at 47% for both Labor and the Coalition in mid-March, and 47% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition in early March.
On the primary-plus measure, which also allows people to remain undecided, Labor has a primary vote of 31%, just behind the Coalition on 32%. The Greens have a primary of 13% and 20% said they would give their first vote to a minor party or independent, meaning a total of 33% planned to vote outside the two major parties.
The survey of 2,142 people was in line with recent major polls from Newspoll, Resolve and YouGov, which have all showed movements toward Labor in recent weeks, as illustrated by Guardian Australia’s poll tracker.
Albanese’s disapproval rating ticked up one percentage point from 46% to 47%, with his approval remaining at 44%, for a net approval rating of minus-three.
Dutton’s approval rating dipped from 41% two weeks ago to 39% in the latest poll, while his disapproval increased from 47% to 48%, for a net approval rating of minus-nine.
The poll coincided with the first weeks of the campaign, which have been dominated by questions over the Coalition’s policies on gas, nuclear and cuts to the public service. Over the survey period, Dutton released long-awaited Liberal-commissioned analysis on his gas plan, which the Coalition says would lower consumer power prices by 3% and consumer gas prices by 7%; he also back flipped on a major pledge to wind back work-from-home flexibility for public servants, admitting the policy was a mistake.
The period also saw the US president, Donald Trump, impose new tariffs on Australia as part of a worldwide trade crackdown. Dutton and his Coalition have worked to further distance themselves from Trump, denying their plans to slash the public service – including cutting roles associated with the education department and those in diversity and inclusion positions, and naming Jacinta Nampijinpa Price to a “government efficiency” role similar to Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” – were influenced by the US president.
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Voters were asked which of the two leaders, Dutton or Albanese, they thought would be best to handle several key issues. On addressing the cost of living, 34% said Albanese, 28% nominated Dutton, and 38% believed there would be no difference.
On providing stable leadership, 35% said Albanese, 29% Dutton, and 37% no difference.
On keeping Australians safe, Albanese had a slight edge, with 30% backing him compared with 29% backing Dutton and 41% seeing no difference between the two. On responding to Trump’s tariffs, Dutton and Albanese both got 29% support, and 42% said no difference.
Asked who would be best to enact energy policies to help Australia meet emissions targets, 35% said Albanese, 23% said Dutton, and 43% said no difference.
Pre-poll voting begins on 22 April. The Essential poll found 53% of Australians said they knew who they would vote and would not change their mind, 34% might change their mind, and 13% had n0t yet decided.
