Big Ten football: Predicting every team's final record, order of finish for 2024 season (2024)

Record: 3-9, 1-8 Big Ten

Wins: Indiana State, at Oregon State, Northwestern

Losses: Notre Dame, Nebraska, at Wisconsin, at Illinois, Oregon, at Ohio State, Penn State, at Michigan State, at Indiana

Quarterback Hudson Card returns for a second season at Purdue but loses a burgeoning star in wide receiver Deion Burks, who looks to be a huge transfer pickup for Oklahoma and a key departure from a Boilermakers program seeking to get a foothold under second-year coach Ryan Walters. This team won four games in his debut season, which was a significant step back from the essentially historic success Jeff Brohm found in his final two years. The ceiling is low in West Lafayette, and even more so in an expanded, divisionless league.

Record: 4-8, 1-8 Big Ten

Wins: FIU, Western Illinois, Charlotte, Purdue

Losses: at UCLA, Maryland, at Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, at Michigan State, Michigan, at Ohio State

While Indiana has very little history as a Big Ten contender, its future looks about as bright as possible given the offseason hire of JMU's Curt Cignetti. The new coach successfully oversaw the Dukes' transition to the FBS level and brought with him to Bloomington many of the key players who aided him in quickly building that program into a household name. The transfer haul, which also includes standout Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke, should give Cignetti a head start on another program-building challenge. The new hire could test the limits of Hoosier football in the years to come, but year one presents plenty of hurdles.

Record:3-9, 1-8 Big Ten

Wins: Eastern Illinois, Central Michigan, Purdue

Losses: Kansas, at Nebraska, at Penn State, Michigan, at Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at Northwestern

It was just two years ago that Illinois led the nation in scoring defense, but after a steep decline to No. 96 last season and the losses of key linemen Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. to the NFL, this unit is nowhere near its 2022 self. That is a problem given that the Illini also had a mediocre offense last year and must now replace their top pass-catcher in Isaiah Williams. While some talent remains on this roster, there exists the possibility that Bret Bielema hit his Illinois peak two years ago and that rekindling that success is too big a challenge in this new league.

Record:5-7, 2-7 Big Ten

Wins: North Carolina, Rhode Island, Nevada, Maryland,at Illinois

Losses: Iowa, at Michigan, USC, at UCLA, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Wisconsin

P.J. Fleck completed in 2023 his first losing season at Minnesota (minus the pandemic-shortened campaign) since his debut year at the helm, snapping a streak of consistency as a perennial Big Ten West contender. As a result, this is a critical year for the trajectory of his program. Rebound, and last season is a blip on the radar. Stumble further, and Fleck's tenure continues on a concerning trend. The Golden Gophers' greatest source of optimism comes from quarterback Max Brosmer, who transferred up from FCS program New Hampshire with a tremendous track record at the lower subdivision.

Record: 5-7, 2-7 Big Ten

Wins: Miami (Ohio), Duke, Eastern Illinois, Indiana, Illinois

Losses: at Washington, at Maryland, Wisconsin, at Iowa, at Purdue, Ohio State, at Michigan

Northwestern was easily one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 campaign as the projected Big Ten bottom-dweller rattled off seven regular-season wins. Second-year coach David Braun set the standard in his interim season and earned the full-time role as a result, but the going figures to be much tougher moving forward in the expanded Big Ten. Projected quarterback Brendan Sullivan entered the transfer portal earlier this spring, throwing a wrench in the Wildcats' offense and triggering a new position battle between Ryan Hilinski and a host of inexperienced backups.

Record: 4-8, 2-7 Big Ten

Wins: at Hawaii, Indiana, Minnesota, Fresno State

Losses: at LSU, Oregon, at Penn State, at Rutgers, at Nebraska, Iowa, at Washington, USC

As if the transition from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten was not enough of a challenge for UCLA, the program is also in the middle of a coaching change with DeShaun Foster landing his first head coach role and replacing Chip Kelly. Foster could lead a recruiting surge for the Bruins, and he hit a pair of coordinator home runs with Eric Bieniemy and Ikaika Malloe on the offensive and defensive sides, respectively, but the on-field product in year one figures to be a step below UCLA's recent standard. Quarterback Ethan Garbers is a nice centerpiece as a first-year starter, but the vast majority of last year's monster defense is gone.

Record: 6-6, 3-6 Big Ten

Wins: Florida Atlantic, Prairie View A&M, Boston College, at Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

Losses: at Maryland, Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa, at Michigan, Rutgers

Michigan State is a prime example of how much the transfer portal can aid a rebuilding project in college football's new era. Jonathan Smith brought with him from Oregon State some of his top young talent, particularly in potential star quarterback Aidan Chiles and prolific tight end Jack Velling — a tandem that projects to cause problems through the air right out of the gate. The Spartans' 2023 results under an interim staff must be entirely thrown out in gauging 2024 upside, and with a proven program-builder in Smith at the helm, Michigan State could get a nice start on the road to eventual Big Ten title contention.

Record: 6-6, 3-6 Big Ten

Wins: UConn, Michigan State, at Virginia, Villanova, at Indiana, Northwestern

Losses: USC, at Minnesota, at Oregon, Rutgers, Iowa, at Penn State

When the biggest question on a team's roster lies inside the quarterback room, there is always the potential for a down year. Replacing longtime starter Taulia Tagovailoa is a monumental challenge, and it is essentially a certainty that Maryland will, in turn, regress at the position. The Terps are not devoid of talent throughout the rest of their roster, though, so as long as MJ Morris or one of the returning backups provides decent production, this program should remain a middle-of-the-road Big Ten operation. Mike Locksley did the best coaching work of his career over the last couple of years, and he faces perhaps his greatest challenge this fall.

Record: 6-6, 3-6 Big Ten

Wins: Weber State, Eastern Michigan, Washington State, Northwestern, at Indiana, UCLA

Losses: at Rutgers, Michigan, at Iowa, USC, at Penn State, at Oregon

Washington became the first and only Pac-12 team to ever finish a regular season undefeated last year en route to the national championship game, but its first season in the Big Ten will be a far greater grind. With Kalen DeBoer off to Alabama and nearly every last one of 2023's key players either embarking on professional careers or seeking opportunities elsewhere, new head coach Jedd Fisch does not have a ton to work with this fall. Incoming transfer quarterback Will Rogers is a nice piece to build around, though, as he joins the Huskies on the heels of a historic career at Mississippi State.

Record: 8-4, 5-4 Big Ten

Wins: UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Illinois, at Purdue, Rutgers, at Indiana, UCLA

Losses: at Ohio State, at USC, Wisconsin, at Iowa

Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola might just be the coach-quarterback tandem to finally pull Nebraska out of its funk. The former took a huge step in elevating his program when he pried the five-star quarterback away from his Georgia commitment, and that addition is already paying dividends as Raiola shined in his debut spring game, completing 16-of-22 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. One-quarter of those yards came on a huge 64-yard completion. Explosiveness and reliability on offense have long stood between the Huskers and the upper half of the Big Ten, and it appears they may have finally filled those needs.

Record: 8-4, 6-3 Big Ten

Wins: Howard, Akron, Washington, UCLA, Minnesota, at Maryland, Illinois, at Michigan State

Losses: at Virginia Tech, at Nebraska, Wisconsin, at USC

This has the potential to be the best season of Greg Schiano's second Rutgers tenure to date. Schiano knows how to win in Piscataway as one of just two coaches in the program's history to log a double-digit-victory season, and he has things trending upward again after a 7-6 campaign. The majority of starters from 2023's formidable defense — which ranked 16th nationally at just 313.5 yards allowed per game — are back for another year, and prolific running back Kyle Monangai will wreak havoc on opposing defensive fronts yet again. The Scarlet Knights miss each of the Big Ten's top four teams on a cushy 2024 schedule.

Record: 8-4, 6-3 Big Ten

Wins: Western Michigan, South Dakota, Purdue, at Rutgers, at Northwestern, at Iowa, at Nebraska, Minnesota

Losses: Alabama, at USC, Penn State, Oregon

The first year of the Luke Fickell era did not provide the immediate high-end success that many deemed possible with the splashy coaching hire. By no means, though, should one season dictate the future of the Wisconsin program under Fickell's watch. He is a bona fide winner with plenty of resources at a school capable of competing annually for Big Ten titles, and none of that changes because of a seven-win campaign. Losing star running back Braelon Allen to the NFL hurts, but as this staff continues to fill the roster with "its guys," it should start to move on the right path.

Record: 8-4, 6-3 Big Ten

Wins: Utah State, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Maryland, Rutgers, at Washington, Nebraska, at UCLA

Losses: LSU, at Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame

On paper, Lincoln Riley made the right decision when he reached this offseason's crossroads. The defensive coordinator hire of D'Anton Lynngives USC far greater upside as it enters the physical Big Ten given that Lynn turned UCLA into a defensive juggernaut during his tenure a few miles away in Westwood. The Trojans still have enough high-end talent to compete with the conference's top dogs, even if quarterback Miller Moss is not the No. 1 NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams was during his two years atop the offense. A more well-rounded USC squad figures to have instant success in its new league.

Record: 9-3, 7-2 Big Ten

Wins: Illinois State, Troy, at Minnesota, Washington, Michigan State, Northwestern, at UCLA, at Maryland, Nebraska

Losses: Iowa State, at Ohio State, Wisconsin

Iowa's overall football product could improve next season with new offensive coordinator Tim Lester injecting new life into the long abysmal Hawkeyes offense, even if its record does not reflect a greater quality of play. The main challenge facing this program for the foreseeable future is the lack of a Big Ten West safety net. The conference's new division-less structure pits Iowa against greater competition than it faced in the West division, limiting the win total ceiling. The Hawkeyes should still be formidable defensively, even with the loss of star defensive back Cooper DeJean, so the floor will not fall out from underneath this team.

Record: 9-3, 7-2 Big Ten

Wins: Fresno State, Arkansas State, USC, Minnesota, at Washington, at Illinois, Michigan State, at Indiana, Northwestern

Losses: Texas, Oregon, at Ohio State

There is plenty of continuity at Michigan even amid a coaching change, and the 2024 campaign will test the solidity of the foundation Jim Harbaugh built before he bolted for the NFL. This is a program that still wants to beat teams to a pulp at the point of attack on both sides of the ball, and under Sherrone Moore's direction, it is well-positioned to do just that. Modest skill position talent in year one, though, limits the Wolverines' ability to repeat as national champions.

Record: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten

Wins: at West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, UCLA, at USC, at Wisconsin, Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Maryland

Losses: Ohio State

If the offensive coordinator switch that brought Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State helps Drew Allar reach the potential that made him the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2022 recruiting class, then there is no reason the Nittany Lions cannot reach the College Football Playoff. At this point in James Franklin's tenure, it is clear that the defense will always be good enough to win at the highest level. Pairing it with a better group on the other side of the ball is the key to surmounting Ohio State and Michigan from the top of the conference ladder.

Record: 11-1, 8-1 Big Ten

Wins: Idaho, Boise State, at Oregon State, at UCLA, Michigan State, at Purdue, Illinois, at Michigan, Maryland, at Wisconsin, Washington

Losses: Ohio State

Dan Lanning did everything in his power to prime Oregon for instant success in the Big Ten, and his recruiting efforts promise to pay huge dividends right out of the gate. Dillon Gabriel is a perfect fit as the Ducks' new quarterback, Jordan James offers upside as a possible breakout star, wideout Evan Stewart bolsters an already strong receiving corps and the defense might be Lanning's best yet. Few schools have as much momentum as Oregon, which seems to have hit a grand slam with its most recent head coach hire.

Record: 12-0, 9-0 Big Ten

Wins: Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, at Michigan State, Iowa, at Oregon, Nebraska, at Penn State, Purdue, at Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan

Losses: None

Ohio State enjoyed a monster offseason with its roster retention and transfer portal recruiting dominance, and those moves position the Buckeyes as the greatest challenger to Georgia for the national title. This stacked roster boasts a monstrous transfer haul with instant difference-makers at quarterback (Will Howard), running back (Quinshon Judkins) and safety (Caleb Downs), not to mention the arrival of top overall recruit Jeremiah Smith, who may emerge early in his freshman season as the next star Ohio State wide receiver. There is no obvious deficiency on this team, making Ryan Day a candidate to hoist the CFP trophy for the first time.